Canmore declared a climate emergency four years ago. We know our planet is now warming faster than scientists, politicians and even the media can keep up.
We also know everything is getting worse, and getting worse more quickly. Fossil fuel use is going up globally, not down.
We also know global climate action solidarity is, at present, a myth. Two major wars are presently distracting international attention and money away from climate action while further adding to the global climate system breakdown. But that is only part of the geopolitical story.
What we also know about our current climate emergency is Canada has, despite much rhetoric and many solemn promises over the past decades, not once honoured its carbon dioxide reduction targets. A recent Federal Environment Commissioner’s report reveals that despite generating more than 10 different federal plans and billions of dollars in spending, emissions are “significantly higher” now than they were in 1990. It is bad enough Canada has missed every one of its previous targets for greenhouse gas emissions, but it is clear now we are not even on track to meet our 2030 target.
If this wasn’t bad enough news, we now know that our Arctic is now warming at a rate at least two to three times, and in some places as much as five times the global average, and the greenhouse release feedback caused by warming of wetlands and peatlands and permafrost thaw has the potential to become a tipping point for the entire global climate system. We also know the only way we can prevent that is to keep as much carbon in the ground as we can. That, however, is not our intention.
What we also know about our current climate emergency is Canada has, despite much rhetoric and many solemn promises over the past decades, not once honoured its carbon dioxide reduction targets. A recent Federal Environment Commissioner’s report reveals that despite generating more than 10 different federal plans and billions of dollars in spending, emissions are “significantly higher” now than they were in 1990. It is bad enough Canada has missed every one of its previous targets for greenhouse gas emissions, but it is clear now we are not even on track to meet our 2030 target.
It is clear putting off climate action, as our province intends to do, until experimental technologies like carbon capture and direct air capture and relying on they can, at last, prove themselves by the 2040s to be both affordable and available at scale is at best a dangerous gamble fraught with all manner of unknown and unintended consequences and, at worst a cynical conspiracy aimed at prevaricating and delaying climate action until we have no choice but to have geoengineering and all its unknown and unintended consequences foisted upon us at huge public cost.
The most important thing we know about our current climate emergency, however, is given the huge inertia in the climate system, the goal of keeping global average warming below 1.5 or even 2 Celsius is out the window. But even if achieving these goals were not unlikely, another thing we know is Canada is already warming faster than the global average and even if there was a miracle and we stopped all carbon emissions in the world this coming Saturday, Canada would still be on track, as it is now, to become at least 3C warmer in the coming decades.
What we should have also figured out about this climate emergency is no one is coming to save us. We have to save ourselves. It will be in the communities in which we live – fortunately, the places we have the most power to affect change and protect ourselves and those we love – that we will have to make our stand against climate breakdown.
Even at the community level, however, it won’t be easy. Unfortunately, another thing we know about our climate emergency is no matter where you live, be it in one of Canada’s rapidly expanding cities or in a town like Canmore, further commitment to exponential growth, either in population or tourism, will mean climate action targets will forever recede beyond your grasp.
What is the difference between an emergency and a disaster? A disaster is a sudden event that causes great damage or loss. An emergency is a situation in which normal operations cannot continue and immediate action is required to prevent a disaster.
In an emergency, your first goal should be to prevent a disaster. To prevent Canmore’s climate emergency from becoming a disaster, we have to think about the climate threat, not just as it is now, but as it will be in a 3 C warmer Canada. We know the threats as we see them now, but we are entering a different world.
We can’t aim for where we’ve been, we have to aim for where we are going.
In his recent brilliant and thorough presentation on the wildfire threat to Canmore, fire ecologist Cliff Whyte acknowledged the threats he clearly outlined and the fire smart solutions he offered were specific to the climate as it is now. Fire will always be a threat, but we should anticipate in the future wildfires will likely be bigger, hotter and move faster and take his recommendations seriously.
The same applies to the flood threat Canmore faces. If we want to prevent our climate emergency from becoming another disaster, another immediate priority must be to immediately complete the flood mitigation project on Cougar Creek. It has been 10 years since the flood of 2013, and the town is still not safe.
The future sent us a big message this past spring and summer. The problem is not going away. It is now projected, for the second year in a row, we can expect the highest temperatures ever experienced by humanity in more than 120,000 years in 2024.
If we realistically aim to get ahead, not just of circumstances as they exist now and aim to protect ourselves from the evolving circumstances we are likely to face, we may have a chance.
Plan now for 3 C of warming here and you, your community and the climate might at least arrive at the same place at the same time.
We have felt the heat. Now it is time to see the light.
Bob Sandford is a senior government relations liaison in global climate emergency response at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. He lives in Canmore.
